Punch It odds: the chance to reach every step
In Punch It each step has four stickmen and some of them counter-punch. The rules state how many, so the chance of reaching any step can be calculated exactly. Here is our calculation.
| Step | Easy: multiplier | Easy: chance to reach | Hard: multiplier | Hard: chance to reach | Hard: about |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | x1.25 | 75.0% | x1.25 | 75.0% | 1 / 1.3 |
| 2 | x1.67 | 56.2% | x1.67 | 56.2% | 1 / 1.8 |
| 3 | x2.22 | 42.2% | x2.22 | 42.2% | 1 / 2.4 |
| 4 | x2.97 | 31.6% | x2.97 | 31.6% | 1 / 3.2 |
| 5 | x3.96 | 23.7% | x5.94 | 15.8% | 1 / 6.3 |
| 6 | x5.28 | 17.8% | x11.88 | 7.9% | 1 / 12.6 |
| 7 | x7.04 | 13.3% | x23.76 | 4.0% | 1 / 25 |
| 8 | x9.38 | 10.0% | x95.06 | 0.99% | 1 / 101 |
| 9 | x12.51 | 7.5% | x380.27 | 0.25% | 1 / 405 |
Where the numbers come from
- Easy mode: 1 counter-punch out of 4 stickmen on every step, so you clear a step 3 times in 4, or 75%.
- Hard mode: also 1 in 4 on steps 1–4, then 2 in 4 (50%) on steps 5–7 and 3 in 4 (25% to pass) on steps 8–9.
- The chance to reach a step is the product of the chances of every step before it. Four steps on Easy: 0.75 × 0.75 × 0.75 × 0.75 ≈ 31.6%.
A sanity check: chance × multiplier always comes to 0.94, which is the game's RTP. For example, 31.6% × x2.97 ≈ 0.94. So the table matches how the game prices its payouts.
What it tells you
- Even the first step is lost in one round out of four.
- Fewer than half of rounds reach x2 (step 3, x2.22): about 42%.
- The end of Easy mode (x12.51) comes up about once in 13 rounds.
- The end of Hard mode (x380.27) comes up about once in 405 rounds.
How to use it
The table won't tell you which stickman to hit: your pick doesn't change the odds, a random number generator decides. What it does is help you choose a cash-out step you are comfortable with. If you want to win about half of your rounds, your ceiling is step 2–3. If you can live with long losing runs for a big multiplier, look at Hard mode. More on choosing a mode in Easy vs Hard, and on tactics in the Punch It strategy guide.
Calculated from the rules in the 1win demo. If the provider changes the rules, the numbers change too. 18+.
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